Analysis and review of rubber market trend in the

2022-08-16
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One week rubber market trend analysis Review

the total inventory of Tianjiao released by Shanghai futures exchange continued to decrease by 5270 tons to 25520 tons as of June 24, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5110 tons to 19085 tons. Looking at the market trading situation and futures price trend in a week, after last week's technical adjustment and the transition of main contracts, as the spot rubber price in domestic production areas stabilized and rebounded, the strong consumer demand still led to a tight spot supply, which is also illustrated by the continued sharp reduction in the stock of natural rubber in Shanghai. In addition, the rubber price in the production and marketing area of the international market still maintained a strong upward momentum, so that the main 509 contract price once again launched a breakthrough market of increasing positions in large quantities with the active participation of new buyers. Although the current domestic production areas will alleviate the supply pressure of spot goods with the recovery increase of production, various factors including transportation will continue to make the overall market in short supply for a certain period of time. The strong demand and the uncertainty of seasonal disaster weather in the future production areas will still promote the rubber price to continue to break through and maintain a high level. The spot rubber quotation of agricultural reclamation e-commerce in the production area has stabilized and rebounded, and the average price of electronic quotation on Friday rose to 13855 yuan/ton. The spot rubber price in the sales market also remained stable and increased: the National Standard No. 1 mainstream quotation slot in the Tianjiao market in Hengshui area matched with the conductor to be tested/ton, and the National Standard No. 2 mainstream quotation was yuan/ton; Thailand No. 3 cigarette glue is in short supply, and the transaction price is high. The mainstream quotation of National Standard No. 1 in Tianjiao market in Zhejiang is yuan/ton, and the overall supply is small; The mainstream quotation of imported No. 3 cigarette is about yuan/ton, and the market supply is small and the quotation is high. The mainstream quotation of National Standard No. 1 in Shanghai Tianjiao market is yuan/ton, and the quotation of domestic latex is yuan/ton. At the same time, with the sharp rise in the price of crude oil in the international market recently, the price of domestic synthetic rubber rose due to the shortage of upstream raw materials. Among them, the prices of styrene butadiene rubber and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rebounded slightly at the high level, the rise of butyl rubber remained unchanged, the rise of ethylene propylene rubber slowed down, and the prices of nitrile rubber and chloroprene rubber remained stable. In the later stage, the price of synthetic rubber is likely to continue to rise, which also supports the price of natural rubber. Therefore, in the case that the inventory of natural rubber in Shanghai stock market has not stopped declining, the rubber price will maintain the trend of rising sharply and returning slightly. In the short term, there is a possibility of adjustment due to the continuous rise of the futures price of the main 509 contract, and we should pay close attention to the change of the contract position during the session. It is also reported that the fourth tire production base invested by Bridgestone Corporation of Japan, the world's top 500 enterprise to make readings accurate, is under construction in Huizhou City, Guangdong Province. Bridgestone Huizhou manufacturing base covers an area of 480000 square meters, with a total investment of about US $300million. It is the largest of the 50 manufacturing bases Bridgestone has established in the world. It is expected to be officially put into production in January 2007, with a daily production capacity of 9000 in 2009. After the completion of Huizhou base, radial tires for trucks and buses will be produced with the most advanced technology. Bridgestone is the world's largest rubber manufacturing company. At present, three tire production bases have been established in China. Tianjin and Wuxi bases produce radial tires for cars to improve product quality and performance, and Shenyang base produces radial tires for trucks and buses

in the international market, due to tight supply in Thailand and Indonesia and strong overseas demand, the rubber price in the main production areas of Southeast Asia remained strong this week. The rainfall in Thailand still makes the supply tight. The FOB price of Thai No. 3 cigarette glue in August remained stable at $1.45 per kilogram, which is a blessing for the industry; In September, the FOB price of sea transportation remained stable at US $1.43 per kilogram. Export grade No. 3 smokeless film remained stable at about 56 baht (US $1.37) per kilogram. Tire grade Thai 20 standard rubber is still quoted at US $1.30 per kilogram. On Friday, the price of No. 3 cigarette glue on the spot market in Bangkok, Thailand, rose to 60.80 baht per kilogram, and the price of standard glue str20 rose to 53.20 baht per kilogram; The price of No. 3 cigarette glue in songka market was reported to 60.55 baht per kilogram, and the price of standard glue str20 was reported to 52.95 baht per kilogram. The market demand for Indonesian Tianjiao has been increasing. The FOB quotation of Indonesian standard glue No. 20 in July is $1.24/kg, the quotation of August is $1.25/kg, and the quotation of September is 1 26 dollars/kg. The spot price of No. 3 cigarette glue in Singapore market rose to 244 per kilogram 75 points. The quotation of Malaysia's No. 20 standard glue in July rose to 1 297 dollars/kg. During the same period, the price of No. 3 cigarette film futures contract in the Tokyo futures market in the region also continued to break through and rise in the oscillation. On Friday, the spot price for June futures closed at 167.0 yen/kg, and the benchmark price for November futures closed at 155.6 yen/kg. On Tuesday, the price was adjusted due to the weakness of the energy market and the pressure of technical bad news, but then the rubber price broke through and rose with the support of firmer energy prices. The Japan Rubber Trade Association announced that as of June 10, the raw rubber inventory in private warehouses in Japan totaled 10575 tons, a decrease of 10% from 11744 tons on May 31. In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar was at 109.20/26 against the yen. Crude oil prices continued to rise in the international market, and the light crude oil futures price in August on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached US $59.90 per barrel. According to Malaysian news: Malaysian tire prices rise again. People in the tire industry pointed out that this is the fifth tire price increase this year, with a price increase rate of 2% to 6%. It is reported that tire wholesalers and dealers have successively received notices from manufacturers, and the tire price increases are divided into categories: 2% for ordinary car tires; The price of tires for small trucks or commercial vehicles will be increased by 5%; The price of medium and heavy machinery tires is increased by 6%. Statistics show that the price of tires has been increased five times in the first half of this year, up 15% from last year

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